Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.017680 0.020051 0.022643 0.025692 0.029184 0.033063 0.037707
2024-10-06 0.014279 0.017572 0.021497 0.026537 0.032861 0.040564 0.050706
2024-10-13 0.011718 0.015206 0.019606 0.025595 0.033580 0.043927 0.058460
2024-10-20 0.010110 0.013697 0.018434 0.025196 0.034676 0.047609 0.066784
2024-10-27 0.008708 0.012233 0.017073 0.024266 0.034793 0.049805 0.073131
2024-11-03 0.008136 0.011821 0.017066 0.025162 0.037498 0.055840 0.085643
2024-11-10 0.007601 0.011385 0.016948 0.025837 0.039891 0.061603 0.098368
2024-11-17 0.007129 0.010980 0.016815 0.026440 0.042188 0.067407 0.111793
2024-11-24 0.006509 0.010279 0.016148 0.026108 0.042918 0.070727 0.121430
2024-12-01 0.005991 0.009685 0.015583 0.025867 0.043738 0.074228 0.131724
2024-12-08 0.005544 0.009161 0.015076 0.025658 0.044564 0.077783 0.142477
2024-12-15 0.005300 0.008952 0.015067 0.026290 0.046907 0.084220 0.159294
2024-12-22 0.004931 0.008505 0.014628 0.026145 0.047882 0.088367 0.172453
2024-12-29 0.004762 0.008394 0.014766 0.027062 0.050933 0.096753 0.195155
2025-01-05 0.004332 0.007776 0.013940 0.026096 0.050262 0.097853 0.203015
2025-01-12 0.004024 0.007356 0.013437 0.025689 0.050633 0.101028 0.215624
2025-01-19 0.003676 0.006830 0.012693 0.024740 0.049806 0.101653 0.222711
2025-01-26 0.003589 0.006795 0.012877 0.025654 0.052911 0.110826 0.250222
2025-02-02 0.003481 0.006708 0.012948 0.026344 0.055605 0.119409 0.277537
2025-02-09 0.003371 0.006608 0.012985 0.026960 0.058199 0.128049 0.306184
2025-02-16 0.003170 0.006307 0.012593 0.026621 0.058629 0.131821 0.323320
2025-02-23 0.002994 0.006045 0.012258 0.026374 0.059240 0.136072 0.342249
2025-03-02 0.002834 0.005805 0.011950 0.026161 0.059904 0.140518 0.362298